Points from our Remaining Fixures

Don Sholeone
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Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Don Sholeone » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:23 pm

Been looking at our remaining fixtures and depending on how the season goes 5 wins could see us safe but for guaranteed safety 6 wins/18 points should be the aim.

Looking at what we face I think it's not unrealistic to mark 10 of the next 16 as winnable fixtures meaning it could only take a 50% win rate from those fixtures for us to stay up, being as tight as it is this year I think the only games that should be written off is that of the "top 6" as we are capable of beating the rest imo.

Swansea (H)
Man City (A)
Burnley (H)
Palace (A)
Man Utd (H}
Bournemouth (A)
Liverpool (A)
Southampton (H)
Spurs (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Leicester (A)
Arsenal (H)
Everton (A)
WBA (H)
Watford (A)

Chelsea (H)

Think we should settle for no less than 3 points from Swansea, Palace, Bournemouth, Southampton, Huddersfield, West Brom, failing that I still think we can at least pick up some draws against the rest including the odd surprise point from the top 6 clubs.

Really think we could comfortably stay up this year even if we have no incomings this month.

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Toondes » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:45 pm

I think we’ll struggle against Palace , Everton , Leicester and Watford as well to be honest
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by TJR » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:52 pm

Swansea (H) 3
Man City (A) 0
Burnley (H) 1
Palace (A) 1
Man Utd (H} 0
Bournemouth (A) 3
Liverpool (A) 0
Southampton (H) 3
Spurs (A) 0
Huddersfield (H) 3
Leicester (A) 0
Arsenal (H) 0
Everton (A) 0
WBA (H) 3
Watford (A) 1
Chelsea (H) 0

5 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats (18 points out of 48) is realistic I'd say. That would take us to the magic 40 point mark ensuring survival.

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by UlversToon » Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:52 pm

Just hope it's sorted before the last game of the season!

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by jpg » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:34 pm

Are you sure 40 points will be enough this year?

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Don Sholeone » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:26 pm

Juliet Papa Golf wrote:Are you sure 40 points will be enough this year?
Last team relegated with 40 or more was 15 years ago, on average the points tally to survive is 38 points. Think it's pretty unlikely that 40 points will see anyone relegated this season

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by jpg » Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:50 pm

Don Sholeone wrote:
Juliet Papa Golf wrote:Are you sure 40 points will be enough this year?
Last team relegated with 40 or more was 15 years ago, on average the points tally to survive is 38 points. Think it's pretty unlikely that 40 points will see anyone relegated this season
Fair enough. Just had a look at the table and 18th is averaging less a point per game so you're probably right.

I'm with you on your point about staying up without investment. It would be a shambles if the squad isn't strengthened but I don't think it's paramount to our survival ( <run> ).

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Lidl » Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:12 pm

Swansea (H) - W
Man City (A) - L
Burnley (H) - D
Palace (A) - D
Man Utd (H} - L
Bournemouth (A) - D
Liverpool (A) - L
Southampton (H) - D
Spurs (A) - L
Huddersfield (H) - W
Leicester (A) - L
Arsenal (H) - L
Everton (A) - D
WBA (H) - W
Watford (A) - L
Chelsea (H) - L

Think that's realistic, some of the draws could turn to wins or losses and vice versa depending on what kind of run we're on.

Would leave us on 36 which is hopefully enough to stay up.
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by TBC » Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:25 pm

Anxiety is through the roof looking at our remaining fixtures and knowing we need points <laugh> <erk>
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Heisen » Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:56 pm

4 wins (Swansea, Southampton, Huddersfield, West Brom), 4 draws (Burnley, Bournemouth, Leicester, Watford) and 8 defeats, which would give us 38 points. I just can't see us winning too many more games without investment unfortunately, and if Lascelles picks up another injury we're f***ed.

If we go out and buy a striker I think we'll just about creep over 40 points.
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Bodacious Benny » Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:53 pm

6 wins from 16 certainly isn't unrealistic. Or even 5 wins and 3 draws from 16 games to get to 40 points isn't unrealistic by any stretch. I won't predict who they'll come against as there will be surprised (good and bad) but it's very doable.
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by lassassinblanc » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:28 pm

Looking from remaining fixtures.

I think we should be fine
Swansea (H) - 3
Man City (A) - 0
Burnley (H) - 4
Palace (A) - 5
Man Utd (H} -0
Bournemouth (A) 6-
Liverpool (A) - 0
Southampton (H) -9
Spurs (A) - 10
Huddersfield (H) - 13
Leicester (A) - 14
Arsenal (H) -
Everton (A) -15
WBA (H) - 18
Watford (A) -19
Chelsea (H) - 20

I think we're capable of getting 20 we have a decent record against Chelsea at home on last day of the season so would be well capable of getting at least a draw, Watford always seem to end badly so getting a point there again is doable. but of course I think 18 points would be enough though as it would get us to 40, depending on who comes in at Stoke I can see them continue to freefall similar to how West Brom have been. Swansea have a lot of ground to make up so I think there is one spot left to take so hopefully that is taken by Stoke
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Bruuuuuuuuce () » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:47 pm

Swansea (H) - D
Man City (A) - L
Burnley (H) - D
Palace (A) - D
Man Utd (H) - L
Bournemouth (A) - W
Liverpool (A) - L
Southampton (H) - W
Spurs (A) - D
Huddersfield (H) - W
Leicester (A) - L
Arsenal (H) - L
Everton (A) - D
WBA (H) - W
Watford (A) - D
Chelsea (H) - L

18 Points. <yikes>

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Bodacious Benny » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:49 pm

18 + 22 = 40 <divax>
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by beatski » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:42 pm

Bodacious Benny wrote:18 + 22 = 40 <divax>
quick maffs

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Bodacious Benny » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:14 pm

beatski wrote:
Bodacious Benny wrote:18 + 22 = 40 <divax>
quick maffs
Fanks <gent>
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Slim999 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:23 am

TJR wrote:Swansea (H) 3
Man City (A) 0
Burnley (H) 1
Palace (A) 1
Man Utd (H} 0
Bournemouth (A) 3
Liverpool (A) 0
Southampton (H) 3
Spurs (A) 0
Huddersfield (H) 3
Leicester (A) 0
Arsenal (H) 0
Everton (A) 0
WBA (H) 3
Watford (A) 1
Chelsea (H) 0

5 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats (18 points out of 48) is realistic I'd say. That would take us to the magic 40 point mark ensuring survival.


If we don't bring in quality its going to be hard to stay up.

But that also depends on what's going on with those around us. We need Swansea to get back to losing ways (we can help with that), West Brom to continue as is, and Stoke to fall apart even more so.

And West Ham, Southampton, Palace, Huddersfield, Watford and Brighton all to stumble. This way they will all be in the mix towards the latter end and will all be looking to take points off each other

Swansea at home is massive - we need to win. A draw would be bad - a loss would be a disaster.

However, I'm going to be optimistic and say that 37 points will be enough to stay up this year as there are a lot of relegation fodder teams - where will that points haul come from ? : See below for a conservative estimate:~

(knowing Newcastle it wont go like this - we will likely win some would don't expect to and vice versa.
......But the match against Swansea is critical )

Swansea (H) - 3 (total points 25)
Man City (A) - 0
Burnley (H) - 1 (total 26)
Palace (A) - 1 (total 27)
Man Utd (H} - 0
Bournemouth (A) - 1 (total 28)
Liverpool (A) - 0
Southampton (H) - 3 (total 31)
Spurs (A) - 0
Huddersfield (H) - 3 (total 34)
Leicester (A) - 0
Arsenal (H) - 0
Everton (A) - 0
WBA (H) - 3 (total 37)
Watford (A) - 1 (total 38)
Chelsea (H) - 0

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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Bodacious Benny » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:37 am

It is hard to call. We've lost so many games 1-0 this season to those around us, hopefully the win at Stoke is a turning point.

Keeping Lascelles fit is crucial, we concede <1 goal per game with him, and given we don't score many goals at all that needs to continue for us to pick up wins. I think if we keep the players we have we will stay up, just. If we got a DECENT striker then we can comfortably be mid-table. We do make chances but putting them away is the issue, we can't be so wasteful.

Our final six games are tricky, with WBA at home the only likely winnable one so need points on the board before then.

Without doubt we need to build on the win at Stoke and beat Swansea this weekend.
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by lassassinblanc » Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:58 am

Bodacious Benny wrote:It is hard to call. We've lost so many games 1-0 this season to those around us, hopefully the win at Stoke is a turning point.

Keeping Lascelles fit is crucial, we concede <1 goal per game with him, and given we don't score many goals at all that needs to continue for us to pick up wins. I think if we keep the players we have we will stay up, just. If we got a DECENT striker then we can comfortably be mid-table. We do make chances but putting them away is the issue, we can't be so wasteful.

Our final six games are tricky, with WBA at home the only likely winnable one so need points on the board before then.

Without doubt we need to build on the win at Stoke and beat Swansea this weekend.
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Re: Points from our Remaining Fixures

Post by Remember Colo » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:52 pm

We need to make improvements, but I'm doubting many bottom dwellers make improvements. In today's market, a lot of clubs are relatively flush with cash, but struggle to spend it well, and it seems harder than ever to make January window signings - especially if you're a club in the muck.

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