Pavel's eBar

[Don Sholeone]

Mortality rate needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, we dont know how many people are infected, so how can we accurately calculate the mortality rate, we can only calculate that from known cases, there could be thousands out there going undiagnosed and coping pretty well.

Covid is a concern and we need to be cautious, but I still think a lot of stuff coming out is being ramped up to scare people into cooperating with advice mainly because of the uncertainty about the virus.

[UlversToon]

Got it.

Result back and positive.

Run down feeling, crappy cough. No fever. Just feel tired.

Don't usually venture onto this part of the forum so a bit late but sorry to hear this and pleased to see you seem to be doing OK now.

[biggeordiedave]

Mortality rate needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, we dont know how many people are infected, so how can we accurately calculate the mortality rate, we can only calculate that from known cases, there could be thousands out there going undiagnosed and coping pretty well.

Covid is a concern and we need to be cautious, but I still think a lot of stuff coming out is being ramped up to scare people into cooperating with advice mainly because of the uncertainty about the virus.

I think people need to be scared into cooperating because it looks like isolation is our only option for now. The thousands undiagnosed are more than likely going about their lives spreading it around. This is why people, healthy or not, need to stay in their homes and distance themselves from others as much as possible.

[bodacious benny]

Frankly people still going to pubs etc are f***ing morons.

[overseasTOON]

Frankly people still going to pubs etc are f***ing morons.

Yep. Complete and utter arseholes

[PTAO?]

Mortality rate needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, we dont know how many people are infected, so how can we accurately calculate the mortality rate, we can only calculate that from known cases, there could be thousands out there going undiagnosed and coping pretty well.

Covid is a concern and we need to be cautious, but I still think a lot of stuff coming out is being ramped up to scare people into cooperating with advice mainly because of the uncertainty about the virus.

Tell that to an Italian

[bodacious benny]

Mortality rate needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, we dont know how many people are infected, so how can we accurately calculate the mortality rate, we can only calculate that from known cases, there could be thousands out there going undiagnosed and coping pretty well.

Covid is a concern and we need to be cautious, but I still think a lot of stuff coming out is being ramped up to scare people into cooperating with advice mainly because of the uncertainty about the virus.

Tell that to an Italian

Only 3,500 deaths in Italy, bloody scare mongering eh.

[biggeordiedave]

Tell that to an Italian

Only 3,500 deaths in Italy, bloody scare mongering eh.

Someone at work a month or so ago said that "Ebola was blown out of proportion too and not many people died." Over 11,000 people died

You have to be a special sort of cronut to think that your own interests and freedoms are more important than doing your bit to help protect millions of people from serious illness.

[Don Sholeone]

Tell that to an Italian

Only 3,500 deaths in Italy, bloody scare mongering eh.

Yes and its more than China who has twice the amount cases than Italy, which shows mortality rate is all over the place so we don't know how deadly it is yet, also a lot of scientists are pointing to the demographic of Italy as a key factor in their higher rate.

[overseasTOON]

Pubs will close from end of tonight and people have been asked not to go.

The pubs will be heaving with people getting smashed in public one last time.

[Micky Quim]

Frankly people still going to pubs etc are f***ing morons.

Yep. Complete and utter arseholes

Arsehole here!

I went out on Wednesday night to a local pub - they had increased separation between all the tables, were doing table service only, you had to pay by card and they were cleaning constantly and using hand sanitiser. It was totally safe. I also went for a pint last night after work at a place on the way home - same sort of setup. I think if places can change how they operate their businesses and you have good hygiene it should be fine.

[ALF]

I've not risked going to the pub. Literally going between home and work and that's all. Might play golf tomorrow too.

[Donkey Toon]

Mortality rate needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, we dont know how many people are infected, so how can we accurately calculate the mortality rate, we can only calculate that from known cases, there could be thousands out there going undiagnosed and coping pretty well.

Covid is a concern and we need to be cautious, but I still think a lot of stuff coming out is being ramped up to scare people into cooperating with advice mainly because of the uncertainty about the virus.

Whereas I think that world governments are deliberately downplaying the severity to a level where they think we are afraid enough to follow their instructions but not so high as to induce panic.

Your bit in bold is the opposite of what I concluded some weeks ago. We keep being told that the mortality rate of covid19 is about 3% based on known cases and they compare that to the mortality rate of seasonal flu as 0.1%. But 30x seems too scary so they pluck a 1% figure out of thin air as the "more realistic" number if you take into account undiagnosed cases, because they think 10x more deadly is scary enough.

But does anybody think that they know all cases of seasonal flu? Of course they don't, there will also be people who are asymptomatic or just get mild cases that are treated like a cold and never get recorded as flu, so their 0.1% is the equivalent of the 3% covid19 figure, i.e. the death rate amongst the severe cases. They fudged one figure whilst leaving the other intact even though the reasoning for the adjustment would apply to both figures equally. All to reduce the level of potential concern.

It also ties in with the drastic reactions we are seeing. The reaction would seem slightly overdone to me if they truly believed the 10x figure. But at 30x it seems much more reasonable to me.

[Sir Bobby]

Mortality rate needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, we dont know how many people are infected, so how can we accurately calculate the mortality rate, we can only calculate that from known cases, there could be thousands out there going undiagnosed and coping pretty well.

Covid is a concern and we need to be cautious, but I still think a lot of stuff coming out is being ramped up to scare people into cooperating with advice mainly because of the uncertainty about the virus.

The countries we have the most data from currently are China, Italy and Spain. China has a mortality rate of 4.5% for proven cases. Italy has a rate of at least 8.6% and Spain has a rate of at least 5%.

But like you said, the question is how many people have it and haven’t been tested? It’s not an exact science but the Diamond Princess showed that of the 712 positive cases just under half (46.8%) didn’t show symptoms so if we assume that, in the above countries, all people who showed symptoms were tested and all people that didn’t show symptoms weren’t tested then that means there were just under twice as many cases in the above countries as thought which would roughly half the mortality rates to 2.4% in China, 4.6% in Italy and 2.7% in Spain.

But let’s even say that half of the people that did have symptoms don’t get tested for whatever reasons. Even then it leaves us with figures of 1.2% in China, 2.3% in Italy and over 1.3% in Spain. Those are still high figures and that’s based on a scenario that is undoubtedly downplaying it. A soft 2% figure seems pretty accurate to me - obviously depending on demographics.

If 60% is the herd immunity rate and 2% of those people die then that’s 800,000 people dead. That is a devastating figure that I’m sure we won’t come close to now we’ve stopped going along the path of outright herd immunity with no disruption to daily life. But it is precisely because of people cooperating with advice (or having it enforced upon them) that we won’t come close to it.

[Don Sholeone]

Mortality rate needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, we dont know how many people are infected, so how can we accurately calculate the mortality rate, we can only calculate that from known cases, there could be thousands out there going undiagnosed and coping pretty well.

Covid is a concern and we need to be cautious, but I still think a lot of stuff coming out is being ramped up to scare people into cooperating with advice mainly because of the uncertainty about the virus.

The countries we have the most data from currently are China, Italy and Spain. China has a mortality rate of 4.5% for proven cases. Italy has a rate of at least 8.6% and Spain has a rate of at least 5%.

But like you said, the question is how many people have it and haven’t been tested? It’s not an exact science but the Diamond Princess showed that of the 712 positive cases just under half (46.8%) didn’t show symptoms so if we assume that, in the above countries, all people who showed symptoms were tested and all people that didn’t show symptoms weren’t tested then that means there were just under twice as many cases in the above countries as thought which would roughly half the mortality rates to 2.4% in China, 4.6% in Italy and 2.7% in Spain.

But let’s even say that half of the people that did have symptoms don’t get tested for whatever reasons. Even then it leaves us with figures of 1.2% in China, 2.3% in Italy and over 1.3% in Spain. Those are still high figures and that’s based on a scenario that is undoubtedly downplaying it. A soft 2% figure seems pretty accurate to me - obviously depending on demographics.

If 60% is the herd immunity rate and 2% of those people die then that’s 800,000 people dead. That is a devastating figure that I’m sure we won’t come close to now we’ve stopped going along the path of outright herd immunity with no disruption to daily life. But it is precisely because of people cooperating with advice (or having it enforced upon them) that we won’t come close to it.

I've read an interesting article about South Korea, saying how they are ahead of everyone else testing, they are testing anyone with mild cases and confirming them statistically and they have a very low mortality rate, whereas a lot of countries are turning people away with mild symptoms so they never become a part of the confirmed statistic, so the majority of people that are included in these figures are the ones with more severe symptoms, which if true only adds to the skewing of mortality rates.

[Sir Bobby]

The countries we have the most data from currently are China, Italy and Spain. China has a mortality rate of 4.5% for proven cases. Italy has a rate of at least 8.6% and Spain has a rate of at least 5%.

But like you said, the question is how many people have it and haven’t been tested? It’s not an exact science but the Diamond Princess showed that of the 712 positive cases just under half (46.8%) didn’t show symptoms so if we assume that, in the above countries, all people who showed symptoms were tested and all people that didn’t show symptoms weren’t tested then that means there were just under twice as many cases in the above countries as thought which would roughly half the mortality rates to 2.4% in China, 4.6% in Italy and 2.7% in Spain.

But let’s even say that half of the people that did have symptoms don’t get tested for whatever reasons. Even then it leaves us with figures of 1.2% in China, 2.3% in Italy and over 1.3% in Spain. Those are still high figures and that’s based on a scenario that is undoubtedly downplaying it. A soft 2% figure seems pretty accurate to me - obviously depending on demographics.

If 60% is the herd immunity rate and 2% of those people die then that’s 800,000 people dead. That is a devastating figure that I’m sure we won’t come close to now we’ve stopped going along the path of outright herd immunity with no disruption to daily life. But it is precisely because of people cooperating with advice (or having it enforced upon them) that we won’t come close to it.

I've read an interesting article about South Korea, saying how they are ahead of everyone else testing, they are testing anyone with mild cases and confirming them statistically and they have a very low mortality rate, whereas a lot of countries are turning people away with mild symptoms so they never become a part of the confirmed statistic, so the majority of people that are included in these figures are the ones with more severe symptoms, which if true only adds to the skewing of mortality rates.

Just had a look and their mortality rate for proven cases seems to be 1.16% at the very lowest up to potentially 3.9% at the very highest. So again it points to around a 2% rate, possibly a bit lower.

[Cal]

It's also worth considering that most proven cases are not yet resolved, there will be deaths to come for some number of them.

[bodacious benny]

Trying to be optimistic and probably being wrong, but it could be the number of deaths in Italy and Spain is because it’s more common for older generations to live with younger family members so it spread easier? Whereas in the UK it’s rarer for the grandparents to live with the family.

[Sir Bobby]

Trying to be optimistic and probably being wrong, but it could be the number of deaths in Italy and Spain is because it’s more common for older generations to live with younger family members so it spread easier? Whereas in the UK it’s rarer for the grandparents to live with the family.

Good point. Age demography is important but that’s probably a much more important point - how much contact do the old have with the young?

[ALF]

Likely to lose half of my hours at work this week, not the best situation but could be worse I suppose.