Are we in a worse position than in 2020/21

[bodacious benny]

Little bit of discussion to keep us going in the week where League Cup matches are taking place and we have of course been knocked out already.

So this season so far hasn't yielded the points that many of us might have hoped for, with an opening set of fixtures where we haven't had to play any of last seasons top four. In fact we don't actually play any of last seasons top four until the end of October, meaning the early part of the season could be / is key to where we finish this season. The 'tougher' games come later on such as when we play Leicester (a), Liverpool (a), Man C (h), Man U (h) and Everton (a) in consecutive matches in December (zero points there then). So in theory, we will have needed some decent points on the board to give us a cushion going into that tough run of games. So far, that hasn't happened and if away trips to Watford and Wolves next don't yield any points then you do wonder where exactly any points will come from.

Last season it was quite clear early on that Sheffield United, WBA and Fulham were very poor and likely to go down, and that played to our (and other teams advantage) as you didn't really need many points to stay up.

This season there are currently five winless teams:

Us
Southampton
Leeds
Norwich
Burnley

Of those, the only one I can see being as consistently poor as the likes of WBA were last season is Norwich, meaning that potential relegation for other lower third teams looks much more likely. Of the teams above I'd expect Leeds to be okay, Burnley always seem to start slow and grind out wins, though I wouldn't be surprised if this was there year to go. Norwich are guaranteed to go down. Southampton are a strange one, on paper I wouldn't say they're particularly strong and I think they'll be in the mix this season. Outside of that there is Watford who have / will pick up some wins but also some batterings, Palace who look more attacking but equally susceptible to getting pummelled and Brentford who look to have enough about themselves to be okay.

Overall I do think it will be harder to stay up this season than it was last season, 100%. Despite the odd good spell in matches (first half v West Ham, at times v Man U and Leeds) we can't put together a good 90 minutes, or go more than half an hour without conceding a poor goal. It's pointless playing well for 20 minutes here and there, we are incredibly disorganised and have no coherent plan. With constantly changing line-ups even when it's not forced on the manager it's no wonder that players don't look like they know what they're doing. We're almost completely reliant on moments of magic from ASM, and for Wilson to finish chances when he's fit. Wilson's injury really has come at the worst time. With him in the team we go to Watford and you think we could maybe win one of those games, without him my confidence plummets.

I'd say with morale seemingly quite low, effectively no new signings to add to what we had the second half of last season, a manager in danger of a coronary half the time and trying to take on the whole world and stronger competition down the bottom of the league I'd say we definitely are in a worse off position than last season. But so are others (Southampton lost Ings and Bertrand, Burnley didn't really strengthen) so it's no guarantee that we'll go down. But I can see it being a real hard slog to get to 40 points again and there's no buffer this time.

Happy Monday

[Speedo]

Last season first 5 games:

West Ham (A) 2-0 W
Brighton (H) 0-3 L
Spurs (A) 1-1 D
Burnley (H) 3-1 W
Man U (A) 4-1 L

7pts from 15

This season first 5 games:

West Ham (H) 2-4 L
Aston Villa (A) 0-2 L
Southampton (H) 2-2 D
Man U (A) 4-1 L
Leeds (H) 1-1 D

2pts from 15

Last year the same fixtures got us 12 points (Ws vs. West Ham, Villa, Southampton). We're bombing in comparison to last season.

[Colly]

I wouldn't disagree, however I don't think I'd make West Ham a direct comparison. We were fortunate to catch them as they were pulling a new team together, and they vastly improved later in the season to the point where they now look brilliant at times.

[bodacious benny]

I wouldn't disagree, however I don't think I'd make West Ham a direct comparison. We were fortunate to catch them as they were pulling a new team together, and they vastly improved later in the season to the point where they now look brilliant at times.

I think the first game of the season last year when we beat them you always get some weird results, I think before the game most of us would happily have taken a point. Lets be honest, a goal and an assist for Hendrick in that game, doesn't get any weirder than that

In the home game when we beat them 3-2(?) I think they had Antonio, Rice and Creswell all out injured too, and Dawson was sent off in the first half so could say that was a somewhat fortunate 3 points for us in that respect.

Though its swings and roundabouts, I'm sure we'll have had some games where ASM and Wilson were injured that we could say we could have won had they been fit.

[Colly]

If anything had we beat them first game of this season that would have been the weird result...

[bodacious benny]

If anything had we beat them first game of this season that would have been the weird result...

It speaks volumes of Bruce's managerial ability that Moyes absolutely wipes the floor with him. Then again, who doesn't? I genuinely can't think of a worse coach in the PL than him. Bruce probably doesn't know which end of the remote to point at the TV.

[Donkey Toon]

I think we are in a worse position, at this stage anyway. We've made a worse start, have not strengthened the squad, Bruce is proving less competent than ever and there appear to be fewer weaker teams to try and stay ahead of. I'm already looking for 3 teams we can finish ahead of and at the moment can only come up with Norwich, with an inkling that Burnley may also be in trouble. I don't think there is a third.

They key to our survival I think will be getting more from, and keeping fit for more of the season, Wilson, ASM and Almiron, along with Willock chipping in some goals comparable with last season. Because those main 3 were out for alot of last season and that hurt us. Keep them on the pitch more this season and it may well be the difference.

But i'm already fearing the worst.

[bodacious benny]

Bruce needs to figure out what to do with Almiron, he's a complete liability being used as a CM. Though Almiron really needs to sort himself out too, far too often a headless chicken with zero end product.

[Donkey Toon]

Bruce needs to figure out what to do with Almiron, he's a complete liability being used as a CM. Though Almiron really needs to sort himself out too, far too often a headless chicken with zero end product.

Bruce needs to figure out a lot of things, but yeah, what to do with Almiron is probably top of the list.

[Colly]

What do you do with him though? His work rate is the best part of his game so CM almost works for him. Higher up the field you realise how unproductive he is and you'd rather be playing ASM/Fraser and even Joelinton and Murphy. A better coach might get more out of him, but he doesn't link up particularly well with the front end.

[Donkey Toon]

That is part of the problem, Bruce persists with a system which doesn't seem to suite his key players. Personally i'd play him as an attacking midfielder. He isn't suited to the deeper role. But in order to get the best out of him we need to press further up the field and there is no chance Bruce will do that. Especially as he seems to want Willock for that role. He needs to come up with something though, otherwise he is wasting one of our best assets.

He sees him daily on the training pitch, he should have figured out how he fits by now. Anybody competent would. But Almiron is one of a number of players he doesn't know what to do with so he shoe-horns them in wherever. Joelinton and Ritchie being other notables. Instead of playing the system he wants to play and forcing his players to fit in he should be working on the training field and coming up with a system that best fits the players he has got. But he seems incapable of doing that. Or it hasn't even occurred to him to try.

[Don Sholeone]

I can't see Brentford sustaining their form, Norwich will go straight back down and possibly Watford, Burnley will be in and amongst them, Southampton have enough to stay up as do Palace. So I think it will be a battle for 17th again between us and Burnley, and that's a battle I think we will lose if we persist with Bruce.

[Sanchino]

That is part of the problem, Bruce persists with a system which doesn't seem to suite his key players. Personally i'd play him as an attacking midfielder. He isn't suited to the deeper role. But in order to get the best out of him we need to press further up the field and there is no chance Bruce will do that. Especially as he seems to want Willock for that role. He needs to come up with something though, otherwise he is wasting one of our best assets.

He sees him daily on the training pitch, he should have figured out how he fits by now. Anybody competent would. But Almiron is one of a number of players he doesn't know what to do with so he shoe-horns them in wherever. Joelinton and Ritchie being other notables. Instead of playing the system he wants to play and forcing his players to fit in he should be working on the training field and coming up with a system that best fits the players he has got. But he seems incapable of doing that. Or it hasn't even occurred to him to try.

This.

We need to go back to four at the back. Play a system were all our players are in there natural position and it'll make a difference.

Darlow
Manquillo Lascelles Fernandez Lewis
Willock Hayden
Murphy Miggy ASM
Gayle*

*Until Wilson comes back from injury. Fraser, Ritchie & Joelinton can come off the bench to make a impact. Unlikely we'll play this system/formation but it will help us get further up the pitch, high pressure with Miggy having the freedom to go forward and run with the ball, ASM out wide on the left & Murphy on the right both provide pace, width & trickery. Willock as a box-to-box no.8 with Hayden as the dedicated DM. Manquillo is solid enough in both boxes to play as RB, has good energy/work-rate & feel he'll link up well with Murphy. It's debatable who should be our CB pairing but on form Lascelles/Fernandez are the best CB's but there both destroyers so if we want a ball-playing CB then put Schar in with Lascelles/Fernandez and finally LB area.. Lewis may be a rough diamond but I say give him a chance in a back four over Ritchie as he has good pace, energy & even though it could leave us exposed/at risk with him bombing forward with ASM it'll add to our attacking threat down the left & you have to be on the front foot it's better to take risk & reap the rewards even though we lose 2-3/3-4 it's better than a bore draw/limp 0-1 defeat, especially at St.James Park we need to make it a fortress again.

Away from home is a different matter especially against the ''bigger sides'' then maybe go back to five at the back to play on the counter but at home we need to be more positive, be more on the front foot, use high pressure & attack more. Saying all this though it's still very unlikely Bruce will change his ways as he's not that tactically astute or intelligent. Even a 4-3-3 would be better.. something like this could work too.

Darlow
Manquillo Lascelles Schar Lewis
---Hayden---
Willock --- Longstaff
Murphy/Miggy --- Gayle --- ASM

Hayden as dedicated DM with Willock & Longstaff having license to bomb forward in support of Gayle with ASM & Murphy/Miggy supporting Gayle on the wings & providing width.

It's going to be a hard long season.. this could actually be the season we go down or we could end 17th/16th, don't see us ending in mid-table at all unless Bruce is sacked/resigns and we get a tactically astute & competent manager.

[gola]

Gr8 thread

[seaside nipper]

Statistically it appears we are sinking a lot faster compared to last season at the same stage.
Strangely it looks that we have a better first eleven however the injuries and playing out of position combined with reported player disharmony place us in a very concerning position.
I think the next game ( a right ugly challenge away ) to Watford will tell us a lot more.
An away win puts us kind of back on par with last season, ( a loss would be very damaging ) but it appears IMO that this season we are in far more danger of relegation than last term. I think the league is stronger this year than last season.
Speaks volumes, we are undeniably regressing in comparative terms and that frankly tells us what we already know. 🥵
This season for me is hoping for the usual fluke results and continue to hope for the unexpected.
Only by some miraculous injury free run from our top players will the prospects look remotely more positive.

[bodacious benny]

I think Watford away is key too. A not great Wolves team went there and won 2-0, yes they beat Norwich but I don't think that's really a massive surprise.

[bodacious benny]

Currently on target to get to about 17 points at the current rate

Can't see us winning until we play Norwich on 01st December.

We've got Spurs (H), Palace (A), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Brentford (H) and Arsenal (A) before that. Maybe draws against Palace and Brentford but can't see much more.

Norwich & Burnley at home before an awful fixture run in December are absolutely key - we're already at the stage where we have to get 6 points from those two games.

Part of me hopes we go to Brighton and get absolutely battered again as we did last season. It'll be final proof (not that any more is needed) that whatever Bruce claims to be working towards isn't happening and we're no better off than when we played Brighton 6/7 months ago.

[ALF]

We are genuinely shocking. We've looked better going forward in recent games but we've got no structure defensively. We're clueless under Bruce. Tactics literally amount to hoping ASM produces and hoping we don't concede.

[Remember Colo]

We are genuinely shocking. We've looked better going forward in recent games but we've got no structure defensively. We're clueless under Bruce. Tactics literally amount to hoping ASM produces and hoping we don't concede.

Hopes and prayers fix everything right? Right?

I'll admit our matches have been consistently more entertaining than in past seasons, unfortunately for better and worse. Because you never know which CB is going to shut-off next and let someone make an unmarked run in behind or through the box for an easy goal.

[bodacious benny]

With constantly changing back lines it’s little wonder everyone looks clueless. I’ve already lost track of how many easy goals we’ve given away this season. Attackers get so much time and space. And Bruce’s fascination with playing Hayden in defence is utterly baffling, especially when he has actual centre backs on the bench!