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16 games left to average 1.25 points* per game (Thanks to Speedo for correcting my Maths)

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:42 pm
by lassassinblanc
Going from the last 10 years 34(.7) points is the average of points accumulated by the team who finish 18th. As we are currently on 18 points that would mean we need at least 1.25 points per game until the end of the season or 16.7 points.
Below is my prediction

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss- 0
Spurs (A) Loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) win- 6
Burnley (H) - Draw- 7
West Ham (A) - loss-0
Everton (H)- Draw - 8
Bournemouth-(a)-Draw-9
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) win 12
Leicester (a) draw- 13
Southampton (h)-win- 16
Wolves (a) draw- 17
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - win -20

Giving us a total of 38 points.

I actually think depending on how the league title goes in the last few weeks we could even take points from Liverpool and we have a decent record against Spurs too so I wouldn't rule out a point or a surprise win there.

All in all I think we'll stay up as I can't see Fulham, Huddersfield or Cardiff reaching 35 points.

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:47 pm
by Bruuuuuuuuce ()
Cardiff - D (1)
Man City - L (1)
Spurs - L (1)
Huddersfield - D (2)
Burnley - W (5)
West Ham - D (6)
Everton - D (7)
Bournemouth - D (8)
Arsenal - L (8)
Palace - D (9)
Leicester - W (12)
Southampton - W (15)
Wolves - L (15)
Liverpool - L (15)
Fulham - L (15)

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:53 pm
by lassassinblanc
Good to see you as optimistic as ever Luque ;)

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:59 pm
by PTAO?
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss- 0
Spurs (A) Loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) Draw - 4
Burnley (H) - Draw- 5
West Ham (A) - Draw-6
Everton (H)- Draw - 7
Bournemouth-(a)-Draw-8
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) win 11
Leicester (a) draw- 12
Southampton (h)-win- 15
Wolves (a) draw- 16
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - Draw-17

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:36 pm
by Bodacious Benny
We have some massive home games. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Burnley, Palace and Southampton. Anything less than 4 wins there and we're down I think, can't see us winning many away games other than Fulham possibly (final day relegation decider for us?). Games away to mid-table teams e.g. Leicester, Wolves West Ham could yield a point or two.

I'm sure we'll put up a fight against the teams in the top 4 / top 6 but come away with nothing. Liverpool could potentially be lifting the PL trophy when we play them at their last home game so we won't get anything there even if they've won the title by then.

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:37 pm
by Captain Obvious
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss- 0
Spurs (A) Loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) win - 6
Burnley (H) - win- 9
West Ham (A) - lose-9
Everton (H)- Draw -10
Bournemouth-(a)-lose-10
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) win 13
Leicester (a) lose- 13
Southampton (h)-win- 16
Wolves (a) draw- 17
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - lose-17

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
by overseasTOON
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) win- 6
Spurs (A) win- 9
Huddersfield (H) win- 12
Burnley (H) - win- 15
West Ham (A) - win- 18
Everton (H)- win - 21
Bournemouth-(a)-win-24
Arsenal (a) - win- 27
Palace-(h) win 30
Leicester (a) win- 33
Southampton (h)-win- 36
Wolves (a) win- 39
Liverpool (H)- win- 42
Fulham (a) - win -45

We'll win every game 1-0 giving us 63 points in total and a +1 GD

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:19 pm
by Bodacious Benny
overseasTOON wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) win- 6
Spurs (A) win- 9
Huddersfield (H) win- 12
Burnley (H) - win- 15
West Ham (A) - win- 18
Everton (H)- win - 21
Bournemouth-(a)-win-24
Arsenal (a) - win- 27
Palace-(h) win 30
Leicester (a) win- 33
Southampton (h)-win- 36
Wolves (a) win- 39
Liverpool (H)- win- 42
Fulham (a) - win -45

We'll win every game 1-0 giving us 63 points in total and a +1 GD
Should see us finish 6th or 7th and European football next season. Because obviously if we qualified for Europe Ashley would surely pump some money into the squad...

<vurn>

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:25 pm
by Colly
overseasTOON wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) win- 6
Spurs (A) win- 9
Huddersfield (H) win- 12
Burnley (H) - win- 15
West Ham (A) - win- 18
Everton (H)- win - 21
Bournemouth-(a)-win-24
Arsenal (a) - win- 27
Palace-(h) win 30
Leicester (a) win- 33
Southampton (h)-win- 36
Wolves (a) win- 39
Liverpool (H)- win- 42
Fulham (a) - win -45

We'll win every game 1-0 giving us 63 points in total and a +1 GD
My version has us lose every game 1-0 and inexplicably stay up on goal difference.

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm
by UlversToon
Bodacious Benny wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:36 pm
We have some massive home games. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Burnley, Palace and Southampton. Anything less than 4 wins there and we're down I think, can't see us winning many away games other than Fulham possibly (final day relegation decider for us?). Games away to mid-table teams e.g. Leicester, Wolves West Ham could yield a point or two.

I'm sure we'll put up a fight against the teams in the top 4 / top 6 but come away with nothing. Liverpool could potentially be lifting the PL trophy when we play them at their last home game so we won't get anything there even if they've won the title by then.
Liverpool is our last home game, not theirs.

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:57 pm
by Bodacious Benny
UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm
Bodacious Benny wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:36 pm
We have some massive home games. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Burnley, Palace and Southampton. Anything less than 4 wins there and we're down I think, can't see us winning many away games other than Fulham possibly (final day relegation decider for us?). Games away to mid-table teams e.g. Leicester, Wolves West Ham could yield a point or two.

I'm sure we'll put up a fight against the teams in the top 4 / top 6 but come away with nothing. Liverpool could potentially be lifting the PL trophy when we play them at their last home game so we won't get anything there even if they've won the title by then.
Liverpool is our last home game, not theirs.
Oh yeah, we’ll still lose regardless <laugh>

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:15 pm
by UlversToon
Bodacious Benny wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:57 pm
UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm


Liverpool is our last home game, not theirs.
Oh yeah, we’ll still lose regardless <laugh>
True!

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:36 pm
by UlversToon
Not as optimistic as Overseas but here goes:-

Cardiff - W (3)
Man City - L (3)
Spurs - L (3)
Wolves - D (4)
Huddersfield - W (7)
Burnley - W (10)
West Ham - L (10)
Everton - D (11)
Bournemouth - D (12)
Arsenal - D (13)
Palace - W (16)
Leicester - L (16)
Southampton - W (19)
Liverpool - D (20)
Fulham - D (21)

39 points and safety!

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:44 pm
by Valentino's fast feet
UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:36 pm
Not as optimistic as Overseas but here goes:-

Cardiff - W (3)
Man City - L (3)
Spurs - L (3)
Huddersfield - W (6)
Burnley - W (9)
West Ham - L (9)
Everton - D (10)
Bournemouth - D (11)
Arsenal - D (12)
Palace - W (15)
Leicester - L (15)
Southampton - W (18)
Wolves - D (19)
Liverpool - D (20)
Fulham - D (21)

39 points and safety!
<notbad>

Seems quite reasonable that, eminently doable for sure. Don't think we'll get anything from Liverpool, though I can see us getting a point from Leicester so it balances out.

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:46 pm
by UlversToon
CIH wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:44 pm
UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:36 pm
Not as optimistic as Overseas but here goes:-

Cardiff - W (3)
Man City - L (3)
Spurs - L (3)
Huddersfield - W (6)
Burnley - W (9)
West Ham - L (9)
Everton - D (10)
Bournemouth - D (11)
Arsenal - D (12)
Palace - W (15)
Leicester - L (15)
Southampton - W (18)
Wolves - D (19)
Liverpool - D (20)
Fulham - D (21)

39 points and safety!
<notbad>

Seems quite reasonable that, eminently doable for sure. Don't think we'll get anything from Liverpool, though I can see us getting a point from Leicester so it balances out.
..and I'm usually the glass half empty type of guy!

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:31 pm
by TJR
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) loss- 0
Spurs (A) loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) win- 6
Burnley (H) - win- 9
West Ham (A) - loss-0
Everton (H)- loss - 9
Bournemouth-(a)-draw- 10
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) -draw- 11
Leicester (a) draw- 12
Southampton (h)-win- 15
Wolves (a) draw- 16
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - win -19

37 points which will be more than enough to stay up.

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:38 pm
by Colly
I like the way everyone's basically got us in the s*** until after the Arsenal game. It's not going to look good going into April.

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:17 am
by Hjl
Ive tried this before christmas and everyone complained that i was too pessimistic.

So here goes:

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss-
Spurs (A) Loss-
Huddersfield (H) win- 6
Burnley (H) - Loss -
West Ham (A) - loss -
Everton (H)- loss -
Bournemouth-(a)- loss -
Arsenal (a) - loss-
Palace-(h) draw 7
Leicester (a) loss-
Southampton (h)- win - 10
Wolves (a) Loss -
Liverpool (H)- loss-
Fulham (a) - win - 13

puts us on 18+13 =31 points

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:44 am
by Speedo
2.1 points per game would give us a finishing total of ~50 points <scratch>

We need 1 point per game to reach 34, more likely 1.25 to get to 38 points. <ok> 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:03 am
by lassassinblanc
Yeah Maths has never been my strong point <laugh>

Seen that Harry Kane is out for a month hopefully he'll miss our game which again hopefully without Son too they will be a less daunting task