16 games left to average 1.25 points* per game (Thanks to Speedo for correcting my Maths)

User avatar
lassassinblanc
lementeurblanc
lementeurblanc
Posts: 1371
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:09 am
Location: Stavanger

16 games left to average 1.25 points* per game (Thanks to Speedo for correcting my Maths)

Post by lassassinblanc » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:42 pm

Going from the last 10 years 34(.7) points is the average of points accumulated by the team who finish 18th. As we are currently on 18 points that would mean we need at least 1.25 points per game until the end of the season or 16.7 points.
Below is my prediction

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss- 0
Spurs (A) Loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) win- 6
Burnley (H) - Draw- 7
West Ham (A) - loss-0
Everton (H)- Draw - 8
Bournemouth-(a)-Draw-9
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) win 12
Leicester (a) draw- 13
Southampton (h)-win- 16
Wolves (a) draw- 17
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - win -20

Giving us a total of 38 points.

I actually think depending on how the league title goes in the last few weeks we could even take points from Liverpool and we have a decent record against Spurs too so I wouldn't rule out a point or a surprise win there.

All in all I think we'll stay up as I can't see Fulham, Huddersfield or Cardiff reaching 35 points.
Last edited by lassassinblanc on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:14 am, edited 3 times in total.
<ayo>

User avatar
saves = survival
Tribal Elder
Tribal Elder
Posts: 1523
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:43 pm

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by saves = survival » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:47 pm

Cardiff - D (1)
Man City - L (1)
Spurs - L (1)
Huddersfield - D (2)
Burnley - W (5)
West Ham - D (6)
Everton - D (7)
Bournemouth - D (8)
Arsenal - L (8)
Palace - D (9)
Leicester - W (12)
Southampton - W (15)
Wolves - L (15)
Liverpool - L (15)
Fulham - L (15)

User avatar
lassassinblanc
lementeurblanc
lementeurblanc
Posts: 1371
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:09 am
Location: Stavanger

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by lassassinblanc » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:53 pm

Good to see you as optimistic as ever Luque ;)
<ayo>

User avatar
PTAO?
Avoids Death. Until it Matters.
Avoids Death. Until it Matters.
Posts: 8577
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:42 pm
Location: Manchester

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by PTAO? » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:59 pm

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss- 0
Spurs (A) Loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) Draw - 4
Burnley (H) - Draw- 5
West Ham (A) - Draw-6
Everton (H)- Draw - 7
Bournemouth-(a)-Draw-8
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) win 11
Leicester (a) draw- 12
Southampton (h)-win- 15
Wolves (a) draw- 16
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - Draw-17

User avatar
Bodacious Benny
Whiskey Club Member
Whiskey Club Member
Posts: 26438
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:18 am

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Bodacious Benny » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:36 pm

We have some massive home games. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Burnley, Palace and Southampton. Anything less than 4 wins there and we're down I think, can't see us winning many away games other than Fulham possibly (final day relegation decider for us?). Games away to mid-table teams e.g. Leicester, Wolves West Ham could yield a point or two.

I'm sure we'll put up a fight against the teams in the top 4 / top 6 but come away with nothing. Liverpool could potentially be lifting the PL trophy when we play them at their last home game so we won't get anything there even if they've won the title by then.
I'm the scumbag outlaw. You're the pillar of justice. Neither of us like looking at ourselves in the mirror. Do we have a deal?

User avatar
Captain Obvious
Drunk Control
Drunk Control
Posts: 5835
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:09 am

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Captain Obvious » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:37 pm

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss- 0
Spurs (A) Loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) win - 6
Burnley (H) - win- 9
West Ham (A) - lose-9
Everton (H)- Draw -10
Bournemouth-(a)-lose-10
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) win 13
Leicester (a) lose- 13
Southampton (h)-win- 16
Wolves (a) draw- 17
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - lose-17

User avatar
overseasTOON
Much Ado About Blogging
Much Ado About Blogging
Posts: 19378
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:53 am
Location: Location: Location

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by overseasTOON » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) win- 6
Spurs (A) win- 9
Huddersfield (H) win- 12
Burnley (H) - win- 15
West Ham (A) - win- 18
Everton (H)- win - 21
Bournemouth-(a)-win-24
Arsenal (a) - win- 27
Palace-(h) win 30
Leicester (a) win- 33
Southampton (h)-win- 36
Wolves (a) win- 39
Liverpool (H)- win- 42
Fulham (a) - win -45

We'll win every game 1-0 giving us 63 points in total and a +1 GD

User avatar
Bodacious Benny
Whiskey Club Member
Whiskey Club Member
Posts: 26438
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:18 am

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Bodacious Benny » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:19 pm

overseasTOON wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) win- 6
Spurs (A) win- 9
Huddersfield (H) win- 12
Burnley (H) - win- 15
West Ham (A) - win- 18
Everton (H)- win - 21
Bournemouth-(a)-win-24
Arsenal (a) - win- 27
Palace-(h) win 30
Leicester (a) win- 33
Southampton (h)-win- 36
Wolves (a) win- 39
Liverpool (H)- win- 42
Fulham (a) - win -45

We'll win every game 1-0 giving us 63 points in total and a +1 GD
Should see us finish 6th or 7th and European football next season. Because obviously if we qualified for Europe Ashley would surely pump some money into the squad...

<vurn>
I'm the scumbag outlaw. You're the pillar of justice. Neither of us like looking at ourselves in the mirror. Do we have a deal?

Colly
Forum Legend
Forum Legend
Posts: 5297
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:44 pm
Location: Billingham

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Colly » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:25 pm

overseasTOON wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:54 pm
Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) win- 6
Spurs (A) win- 9
Huddersfield (H) win- 12
Burnley (H) - win- 15
West Ham (A) - win- 18
Everton (H)- win - 21
Bournemouth-(a)-win-24
Arsenal (a) - win- 27
Palace-(h) win 30
Leicester (a) win- 33
Southampton (h)-win- 36
Wolves (a) win- 39
Liverpool (H)- win- 42
Fulham (a) - win -45

We'll win every game 1-0 giving us 63 points in total and a +1 GD
My version has us lose every game 1-0 and inexplicably stay up on goal difference.

UlversToon
Veteran Poster
Veteran Poster
Posts: 3927
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:52 pm
Location: Cumbria

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by UlversToon » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm

Bodacious Benny wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:36 pm
We have some massive home games. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Burnley, Palace and Southampton. Anything less than 4 wins there and we're down I think, can't see us winning many away games other than Fulham possibly (final day relegation decider for us?). Games away to mid-table teams e.g. Leicester, Wolves West Ham could yield a point or two.

I'm sure we'll put up a fight against the teams in the top 4 / top 6 but come away with nothing. Liverpool could potentially be lifting the PL trophy when we play them at their last home game so we won't get anything there even if they've won the title by then.
Liverpool is our last home game, not theirs.

User avatar
Bodacious Benny
Whiskey Club Member
Whiskey Club Member
Posts: 26438
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:18 am

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Bodacious Benny » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:57 pm

UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm
Bodacious Benny wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:36 pm
We have some massive home games. Cardiff, Huddersfield, Burnley, Palace and Southampton. Anything less than 4 wins there and we're down I think, can't see us winning many away games other than Fulham possibly (final day relegation decider for us?). Games away to mid-table teams e.g. Leicester, Wolves West Ham could yield a point or two.

I'm sure we'll put up a fight against the teams in the top 4 / top 6 but come away with nothing. Liverpool could potentially be lifting the PL trophy when we play them at their last home game so we won't get anything there even if they've won the title by then.
Liverpool is our last home game, not theirs.
Oh yeah, we’ll still lose regardless <laugh>
I'm the scumbag outlaw. You're the pillar of justice. Neither of us like looking at ourselves in the mirror. Do we have a deal?

UlversToon
Veteran Poster
Veteran Poster
Posts: 3927
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:52 pm
Location: Cumbria

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by UlversToon » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:15 pm

Bodacious Benny wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:57 pm
UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm


Liverpool is our last home game, not theirs.
Oh yeah, we’ll still lose regardless <laugh>
True!

UlversToon
Veteran Poster
Veteran Poster
Posts: 3927
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:52 pm
Location: Cumbria

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by UlversToon » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:36 pm

Not as optimistic as Overseas but here goes:-

Cardiff - W (3)
Man City - L (3)
Spurs - L (3)
Wolves - D (4)
Huddersfield - W (7)
Burnley - W (10)
West Ham - L (10)
Everton - D (11)
Bournemouth - D (12)
Arsenal - D (13)
Palace - W (16)
Leicester - L (16)
Southampton - W (19)
Liverpool - D (20)
Fulham - D (21)

39 points and safety!
Last edited by UlversToon on Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:13 am, edited 2 times in total.

Emiliano Sala's Invincible Hair
Tribal Elder
Tribal Elder
Posts: 1421
Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:07 am

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Emiliano Sala's Invincible Hair » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:44 pm

UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:36 pm
Not as optimistic as Overseas but here goes:-

Cardiff - W (3)
Man City - L (3)
Spurs - L (3)
Huddersfield - W (6)
Burnley - W (9)
West Ham - L (9)
Everton - D (10)
Bournemouth - D (11)
Arsenal - D (12)
Palace - W (15)
Leicester - L (15)
Southampton - W (18)
Wolves - D (19)
Liverpool - D (20)
Fulham - D (21)

39 points and safety!
<notbad>

Seems quite reasonable that, eminently doable for sure. Don't think we'll get anything from Liverpool, though I can see us getting a point from Leicester so it balances out.
CIH

UlversToon
Veteran Poster
Veteran Poster
Posts: 3927
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:52 pm
Location: Cumbria

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by UlversToon » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:46 pm

CIH wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:44 pm
UlversToon wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:36 pm
Not as optimistic as Overseas but here goes:-

Cardiff - W (3)
Man City - L (3)
Spurs - L (3)
Huddersfield - W (6)
Burnley - W (9)
West Ham - L (9)
Everton - D (10)
Bournemouth - D (11)
Arsenal - D (12)
Palace - W (15)
Leicester - L (15)
Southampton - W (18)
Wolves - D (19)
Liverpool - D (20)
Fulham - D (21)

39 points and safety!
<notbad>

Seems quite reasonable that, eminently doable for sure. Don't think we'll get anything from Liverpool, though I can see us getting a point from Leicester so it balances out.
..and I'm usually the glass half empty type of guy!

User avatar
TJR
10 Champs Gold
10 Champs Gold
Posts: 11377
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:41 pm
Location: Newcastle
Contact:

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by TJR » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:31 pm

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) loss- 0
Spurs (A) loss- 0
Huddersfield (H) win- 6
Burnley (H) - win- 9
West Ham (A) - loss-0
Everton (H)- loss - 9
Bournemouth-(a)-draw- 10
Arsenal (a) - loss- 0
Palace-(h) -draw- 11
Leicester (a) draw- 12
Southampton (h)-win- 15
Wolves (a) draw- 16
Liverpool (H)- loss- 0
Fulham (a) - win -19

37 points which will be more than enough to stay up.

Colly
Forum Legend
Forum Legend
Posts: 5297
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:44 pm
Location: Billingham

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Colly » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:38 pm

I like the way everyone's basically got us in the s*** until after the Arsenal game. It's not going to look good going into April.

User avatar
Hjl
Veteran Poster
Veteran Poster
Posts: 2723
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 12:46 pm

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Hjl » Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:17 am

Ive tried this before christmas and everyone complained that i was too pessimistic.

So here goes:

Cardiff (H) - win- 3
Man City (H) Loss-
Spurs (A) Loss-
Huddersfield (H) win- 6
Burnley (H) - Loss -
West Ham (A) - loss -
Everton (H)- loss -
Bournemouth-(a)- loss -
Arsenal (a) - loss-
Palace-(h) draw 7
Leicester (a) loss-
Southampton (h)- win - 10
Wolves (a) Loss -
Liverpool (H)- loss-
Fulham (a) - win - 13

puts us on 18+13 =31 points

User avatar
Speedo
Not at 66-1, f*** that.
Not at 66-1, f*** that.
Posts: 8751
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2012 5:40 pm
Location: London

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by Speedo » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:44 am

2.1 points per game would give us a finishing total of ~50 points <scratch>

We need 1 point per game to reach 34, more likely 1.25 to get to 38 points. <ok> 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses
I had the first custom w***

User avatar
lassassinblanc
lementeurblanc
lementeurblanc
Posts: 1371
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:09 am
Location: Stavanger

Re: 16 games left to average 2.1 points per game

Post by lassassinblanc » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:03 am

Yeah Maths has never been my strong point <laugh>

Seen that Harry Kane is out for a month hopefully he'll miss our game which again hopefully without Son too they will be a less daunting task
<ayo>

Post Reply